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Metadados

1. Identificação
Tipo de ReferênciaArtigo em Revista Científica (Journal Article)
Sitemtc-m16d.sid.inpe.br
Código do Detentorisadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S
Identificador8JMKD3MGP7W/3AUTQJS
Repositóriosid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2011/12.13.10.43   (acesso restrito)
Última Atualização2011:12.13.10.47.12 (UTC) marciana
Repositório de Metadadossid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2011/12.13.10.43.29
Última Atualização dos Metadados2018:06.05.04.25.07 (UTC) administrator
Chave SecundáriaINPE--PRE/
DOI10.1016/j.techfore.2011.04.001
ISSN0040-1625
Chave de CitaçãoMirandaLima:2011:FoChWo
TítuloOn the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios
Ano2011
MêsOct.
Data de Acesso03 maio 2024
Tipo SecundárioPRE PI
Número de Arquivos1
Tamanho1507 KiB
2. Contextualização
Autor1 Miranda, Luiz C. M.
2 Lima, C. A. S.
Grupo1 LAS-CTE-INPE-MCT-BR
Afiliação1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
2 Univ Estadual Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
RevistaTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume78
Número8
Páginas1445-1470
Nota SecundáriaB2_ENGENHARIAS_II A1_INTERDISCIPLINAR
Histórico (UTC)2011-12-13 10:45:13 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2011
2011-12-13 10:46:39 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2011
2011-12-13 10:47:38 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2011
2013-03-11 12:54:29 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2011
2013-03-15 16:37:58 :: marciana -> administrator :: 2011
2018-06-05 04:25:07 :: administrator -> marciana :: 2011
3. Conteúdo e estrutura
É a matriz ou uma cópia?é a matriz
Estágio do Conteúdoconcluido
Transferível1
Tipo do ConteúdoExternal Contribution
Tipo de Versãopublisher
Palavras-ChaveEvolutionary growth processes
Logistic model forecasting
Allee modified logistic model
World population forecasting
World GDP evolution
Food supply evolution
Primary energy forecasting
TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE
POPULATION
GROWTH
SUBSTITUTION
DYNAMICS
ResumoLogistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserve.
ÁreaFISMAT
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4. Condições de acesso e uso
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Grupo de Usuáriosadministrator
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Visibilidadeshown
Política de Arquivamentodenypublisher denyfinaldraft36
Permissão de Leituradeny from all and allow from 150.163
Permissão de Atualizaçãonão transferida
5. Fontes relacionadas
Repositório Espelhosid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02.53
Unidades Imediatamente Superiores8JMKD3MGPCW/3ESR3H2
DivulgaçãoWEBSCI
Acervo Hospedeirosid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02
6. Notas
Campos Vaziosalternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress electronicmailaddress format isbn label lineage mark nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate session shorttitle sponsor subject targetfile tertiarymark tertiarytype typeofwork url
7. Controle da descrição
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