%0 Conference Proceedings
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F3T29H
%3 MariaValverde_Rainfall.pdf
%B Proceedings of the Global Conference on Global Warming 2011.
%X The purpose of this study is to elaborate the climatology of extremes indices of rainfall in the Amazon basin. For this purpose, climatic indices (CDD, R95p, RX1day, Rnnmm) recommended by the joint World Meteorological Organization CCL/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were calculated. One of the most important aspects of this study is to characterize possible change in extreme of rainfall (e.g. floods, drought, etc) over Amazon basin, since these events have strongest impacts on society. Extremes indices were derived from daily precipitation at NOAALs Climate Prediction Center (CPCp) with resolution 1x1, for period 1979-2005. The indices calculated in this study are R50mm and R80mm defined as the number of days per year with precipitation amount . 50 mm and . 80mm respectively. CDD defined as annual maximum number of consecutive dry days and R95p (very wet days exceeding the 95th percentile).These indices can be related to drought (CDD) and floods (R95p) events. The rainfall of Amazon basin exhibits high interannual and interdecadal variability associated with ENSO events and with the positive anomaly of SST in the North Atlantic. The annual variability of extreme precipitation indices, such as, maximum length of dry spells (CDD) and RR> 95p (R95p) were sensitive to identification periods of droughts. Also, it verified that extreme rains . 50mm and . 80 mm (R50mm and R80mm), occur with or without events El Nino. On the other hand, droughts are not necessarily associated with a diminution of extreme rainfall events (R50mm e R80mm). Individual locations in the west of the basin (Santarem, Cachimbo and Manaus stations) show negative trends of CDD. However, Rio Branco station (southeast of basin) showed statistically significant positive trends of CDD, and captured the drought of 2005 and 2010. The future scenarios of ETA_HadCM3 model for the period 2011-2040, show an increase (decrease) of the index CDD (R95p) for the average area of the Amazon basin, and it will be stronger in the 2071-2099 climatology. However, as this result is a projection of model there are still many uncertainties. The fact is that historically these extremes of rain are part of climate variability in the region, and they can happen again.
%@mirrorrepository sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02.53
%T Rainfall extremes events climatology over the Amazon basin
%@electronicmailaddress maria.valverde@cptec.inpe.br
%@electronicmailaddress jose.marengo@inpe.br
%@tertiarytype Paper
%@secondarytype PRE CI
%K Amazon basin, climatic extremes, heavy rainfall and regional model.
%8 11-14, July
%@usergroup administrator
%@usergroup valdirene
%@group CST-CST-INPE-MCT-BR
%@group CST-CST-INPE-MCT-BR
%@secondarykey INPE--PRE/
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2011/11.30.12.05.17
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2011/11.30.12.05
%@documentstage not transferred
%D 2011
%A Valverde, Maria Cleófe,
%A Marengo, José Antonio,
%C Lisbon, Portugal
%@area CST