%0 Conference Proceedings
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F3T29H
%@resumeid 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JJ2E
%@resumeid 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHD4
%B International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, 14.
%X Thunderstorms are known to have a significant impact on society in terms of fatalities and financial losses, making the possibility to predict the response of thunderstorm activity to global warming one of the main goals of current research. However, predicting changes in thunderstorm activity is a very difficult task because its activity is modulated by many physical processes acting simultaneously at many different spatial scales. Among the possible processes for South America, we can identify at local scale the urban activity and at large scale the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the South Atlantic Ocean surface temperature anomaly (TSA) and the South Pacific Ocean surface temperature. There is also some speculation about a possible influence of the solar activity on the thunderstorm activity. In this report thunderstorm day monthly records obtained in the last 120 years in the cities of São Paulo and Campinas and in the last 150 years in the city of Rio de Janeiro, all in the Southeast region of Brazil, are analyzed and discussed in the context of the phenomena above. The results of the analysis indicate that the variation in the thunderstorm activity in São Paulo and Campinas are dominated by urban activity and show a significant increase during the period of study, while in Rio de Janeiro it cannot be explained by either urban activity or a single large scale phenomenon, being most probably a result of a complex combination of local and large scale features. Statistically analysis involving a combination of large scale phenomena found that the unique combination that results in a significant variation of the thunderstorm days is the occurrence of both positive anomalies of TSA and La Niña, in comparison with the occurrence of both negative anomalies of TSA and El Niño. This combination produces also significant variations of thunderstorm days in São Paulo and Campinas. If it is assumed that the ENSO phenomenon is relatively independent of the global warming in course, the positive trend of TSA suggest that the thunderstorm activity in the Southeast Brazil tends to increase with the global warming.
%@mirrorrepository sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02.53
%T Thunderstorm days in the Southeast Brazil since the Nineteenth Century
%@electronicmailaddress osmar@dge.inpe.br
%@electronicmailaddress iara@dge.inpe.br
%@secondarytype PRE CI
%K Lighting, Thunderstorms, Brazil.
%8 08-12 Aug
%@usergroup administrator
%@usergroup secretaria.cpa@dir.inpe.br
%@group CST-CST-INPE-MCT-BR
%@group CST-CST-INPE-MCT-BR
%@e-mailaddress secretaria.cpa@dir.inpe.br
%3 O.Pinto - THUNDERSTORM DAYS IN THE SOUTHEAST BRAZIL SINCE THE NINETEENTH CENTURY.pdf
%@secondarykey INPE--PRE/
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2012/01.04.15.43.41
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Aeronautic and Space Institute (IAE/CTA)
%@versiontype publisher
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2012/01.04.15.43
%@documentstage not transferred
%D 2011
%S Proceedings
%A Pinto Junior, Osmar,
%A Pinto, Iara Regina Cardoso de Almeida,
%A Ferro, Marco Antonio da Silva,
%C Rio de Janeiro
%@area CEA