%0 Conference Proceedings
%@nexthigherunit 8JMKD3MGPCW/3EUPEJL
%@holdercode {isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S}
%@resumeid
%@resumeid 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JHMS
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2010/07.20.18.44.55
%@usergroup administrator
%@usergroup estagiario
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2010/07.20.18.44
%3 Mattos_modelo.pdf
%B Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 16.
%X This work evaluates and characterizes some physical proprieties of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) associate the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurrence and proper an electrical activity nowcasting method. Satellite data from the GOES-10 infrared and CG lightning information from the BrasilDAT were utilized for the period from 2007 to 2009. The brightness temperature was assimilated by ForTracCC model which determined the MCS physical proprieties that were coupled with CG lightning information. The multivariate analyses and dispersion relation showed that MCS size, minimum temperature and normalized expansion rate are the proprieties stronger correlationed with CG lightning occurrence. Therefore it was obtained a multiple regression parameterization that combines these three variables. The validation statistics showed high detection probability above 95 % and false alarm rate below 43 % in order to diagnostic and nowcast until 120 minutes. On the other hand, the nowcasting tends to sub-estimate the CG lighting occurrence within of reasonable range. This newest and current CG lightning nowcasting product at South America provides a better understanding, diagnostic and forecast of the convective and electrical activity and has potential to mitigation of the electrical phenomenon consequences.
%@mirrorrepository sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02.53
%T Modelo de previsão de relâmpagos nuvem-solo utilizando imagens de satélite em infravermelho
%@electronicmailaddress enrique.vieira@cptec.inpe.br
%@electronicmailaddress luiz.machado@cptec.inpe.br
%@secondarytype PRE CN
%K relâmpagos nuvem solo, sistemas convectivos de mesoescala, previsão imediata de tempo.
%8 13-17 set 2010
%@secondarykey INPE--PRE/
%D 2010
%A Mattos, Enrique Vieira,
%A Machado, Luiz Augusto Toledo,
%C Belem, PA
%@group
%@group CPT-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR
%@affiliation
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@area MET